As I mentioned last time, I’m making the transition to semi-retirement, with no teaching or university administration and a more selective approach to economic research. That won’t change my public role much, and you can expect to keep on reading my thoughts on a range of issues. But political developments in Australia and the world mean that I need to change the focus of my public work.
The big event in Australian politics in October was the failure of the Voice referendum. I was always convinced that Albanese’s strategy of a vote on general principle, with no proposed model was doomed to failure, but I hoped for a narrower loss than what we saw. I really don’t know how Australia can recover from this collective failure, which has emboldened the worst elements of the racist right.
On the morning after, I ran in the Bridge to Brisbane, with a time of 54:40, 18th in my age group. I was hoping for a slightly faster time, but a warm morning and my slow recovery from the Sunshine Coast 70.3 in September meant that it was not to be. Still, I enjoyed myself, and it was a good way to take my mind off the referendum.
More generally, I’m trying (with limited success) to shift my attention away from short-term politics. My estimate of conditional life expectancy suggests I have a good chance of being around until 2050, so I’m setting that as the time horizon for thinking about the future. Some of the issues for which such a time frame makes sense include
Decarbonizing the economy and beginning the task of restoring the global environment
Ending extreme poverty and meeting UN Sustainable Development Goals
Moving to a four-day working week, where workers have control over their own hours
A Universal Basic Income, perhaps in the form of a Livable Income Guarantee
Adjusting our economic and social structure to a world of below-replacement birth-rates and longer lives (both good things, in my view).
Here are some of the things I’ve been doing since my last newsletter
Submissions
(with Jeff Connor, Quentin Grafton and Sarah Wheeler,) Submission to Inquiry into the Water Amendment (Restoring Our Rivers) Bill 2023 [Provisions] 31 October
Presentations
3 October Presentation to Community Tax Project, via Zoom
4 October Meeting with Climate Change Authority to discuss economic modelling of climate impacts
23 October Australasian Study of Parliament Group, Queensland Chapter, panel discussion on two-party system
25 October Seminar at ANU, Seven types of Ambiguity
26 October, Presentation at Australia Institute Tax Summit, Parliament House, Canberra
Opinion pieces
Why the ‘drug dealers defence’ doesn’t work for exporting coal. It’s actually Economics 101 The Conversation 6 October
It’s good the High Court overturned Victoria’s questionable EV tax. But there’s a sting in the tail The Conversation
Can generational analysis be saved? Inside Story, 30 October
Westpac’s profit jump is no surprise when the RBA favours banks over households Guardian 6 November
Media
My media report for October, password quiggin (Thanks to Alysha Hilevuo for preparing this)
Visit my Substack blog
Thanks for your updates- role model and inspirer!
The US Social Security Administration says 2035 for me, almost certainly too low based on income and health, but probably not 2050. Still, these are pretty good priorities for me, too.
Howeve,r some me some quibbles:
I hold some considerable hope for efficient carbon capture and sequestration powered by near zero marginal cost power from solar/wind/geothermal or nuclear that would prevent needing to tax the last niche of fossil fuel use down to zero.
Poverty and development: Total agreement to which I’d add this will be a lot easier and maybe impossible without higher pc growth rates in “developed” countries.
More control of hours yes. I wonder if moving some of “retirement” leisure days and youth education days into the “working years” is not better than rearranging the work week.
UBI is OK, but at least as a halfway house just a much more generous EITC
Adjustment to lower birthrates and longer lives, yes. And I can’t resist saying in my book this implies more progressive consumption taxes and less income/wage taxes.