Waiting for the storm

My March newsletter

As I write this, I’’m watching the track of Cyclone Alfred, which accoridng to the latest models, is headed straight for me in Maroochydore. At a minimum, it seems likely to disrupt, or maybe cause the cancellation of, the Mooloolaba triathlon, due to be held this weekend. That’s a pretty big deal for me, as Moo Tri is the main focus of my sporting year. But of course, lots of people are likely to suffer much more than a race cancellation if the cyclone hits hard.

And in the world as a whole, we are waiting for the storm to break. While our leaders are still pretending that some kind of reconcilation with the US is possible, or ignoring the issue altogether, it seems highly unlikely that this will happen. Instead, we are faced with the prospect of rebuilding the world order, at least the free world part of it, from scratch, while navigating the “polycrisis” of climate change, war and economic chaos.

Buying Teslas, signing up for Starlink, and using Twitter and Facebook for commuications all seemed like a good idea, but now appear as a trap from which we will have to break free. And that’s just the tiny part of the problem represented by Musk and Zuckerberg. Looking ahead, we will need a financial architecture centred on the euro, rather than the US dollar or Chinese yuan, a defence strategy without the US alliance and much more.

There’s a chance that Trump might over-reach and fall from power in four years time. But there’s no sign of that yet. It seems more likely that the remaining obstacles to a full-scale dictatorship, such as term limits and a free press will be gone well before Trump faces the voters. And even if he fails the damage he has done in barely a month won’t be repaired by a change of government.

Turning to our local problems, its generally assumed that PM Albanese will call an election shortly, probably to be held on 12 April. I see zero chance that the government will be returned with a majority, The best hope is a minority Labor government, supported by independents and Greens. But Albanese, the ultimate Labor tribalist, is the last person suited to manage such an outcome. And its entirely possible that Dutton will win outright.

Doing my best to carry on regardless, I’ve been speaking at a bunch of events, focusing on the folly of nuclear power and the problematic future of the Murray-Darling Basin, as well as maintaining my usual media output.

Newspaper articles

Neoliberalism is dead. So why haven’t Australia’s leaders got the message? The Guardian 22 February

New report skewers Coalition’s contentious nuclear plan – and reignites Australia’s energy debate The Conversation 26 February

Media

My February media report is here (password quiggin). Thanks to Alysha Hiluevo for preparing this

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